AAP's Rise in National Politics

The next 10-15 years period is going to see the gradual rise of Aam Aadmi Party in national politics. AAP is well on its way to supplant Congress as the main opposition party. For the tipping point to occur, AAP needs to form government in 5-6 states. This may happen between 2027-30. By 2034, AAP will be competing with BJP to form the government at the center.

AAP is recognized as a state party in Delhi, Goa, and Punjab. One more such recognition will automatically qualify it to become a national party. AAP might achieve this in the oncoming Gujarat state elections.

Indian polity is sorely missing a strong opposition party at the center. The rise of a non-traditional party into that role should be welcomed. Yes, it is true that Kejriwal is an opportunist and his leadership style is autocratic. His willingness to employ questionable tactics in pursuit of power ring many alarm bells. However, Kejriwal's realpolitik is a necessity in this political climate.

It should be noted that national politics has moved to the left of the spectrum in terms of economics and right of the spectrum in terms of religion and nationalism. Modi has mastered this balancing act and it has paid him rich dividends.

Arvind Kejriwal is no stranger to welfare politics and freebies. AAP is already known for good governance, with Mohalla Clinics and improvements in Education. AAP owes its origins to the India Against Corruption movement. What's missing in AAP's armory is appeasement of Hindu voters. The recent Goddess Lakshmi on currency notes demand is aimed in that direction.

No party that has qualms about abrogation of Article 370 and construction of Ram Mandir can dream of ruling India! This is what Arvind Kejriwal has recognized and Rahul Gandhi continues to be blind to.

భాజపా ధ్రుతరాష్ట్ర కౌగిలి నుంచి బయటపడుతున్న పవన్ కల్యాణ్

 భాజపా ధ్రుతరాష్ట్ర కౌగిలి నుంచి పవన్ కల్యాణ్ బయటపడుతున్నట్టే ఉంది. ఇది ఆంధ్రప్రదేశ్ రాజకీయాల్లో ఆహ్వానించదగ్గ పరిణామం. తెదేపా-జనసేన కలిస్తే 2024లో కనీసం గట్టిపొటీని ఆశించవచ్చు.

జనసేన ప్రాబల్యం ప్రస్తుతానికి 5-10% కే పరిమితం. ఇది పవన్ గుర్తించి టిక్కెట్ల సర్దుబాటులో తదనుగుణంగా నడుచుకుంటే మంచిది. ఏదో కింగ్ మేకర్గా ఊహించుకుని, తన ప్రాబల్యం 30-35% అని విర్రవీగి ఒంటరిగా వెళితే 2029 కల్లా జనసేన గల్లంతు కావడం తధ్యం. 2024లో 5-10 సీట్లు సాధించగలిగితే జనసేన తన ఉనికిని కాపాడుకోవచ్చు. అలాగే 2029లో త్రిముఖ పోటీని మనం ఆశించవచ్చు.

ఏది ఏమయినా వచ్చే 15 ఏళ్ళలో ఏవో రెండు పార్టీలు మాత్రమే బరిలో నిలుస్తాయి. దీనికి కారణం ప్రస్తుతమున్న First Past The Post (FPTP) ఎన్నికల పద్దతిలో మూడో పార్టీకి స్థానం లేకపోవడమే. వైకాపా-తెదేపా-జనసేన లొ ఏ రెండు నిలుస్తాయో అన్నది ఆ పార్టీల నాయకత్వ సామర్ధ్యంపై ఆధారపడి ఉంది.

పవన్ లో నిలకడ, జనసేన పార్టీ విధానాల్లో స్పష్టత మెరుగుపడకపోతే రాజకీయ ఉనికి కష్టమే. అసలు ఏమి ఆశించి భాజపాతొ అంటకాగ చూశాడో పవన్ కే తెలియాలి. అన్న నాగేంద్రబాబుని పార్టీనించి ఎంత దూరం పెడితే అంత మంచిది. పార్టే నిధుల కోసం పవన్ సినిమాలు చేయడాన్ని మించి పెద్ద జోక్ రాజకీయాల్లో ఉండదేమో! తాను కేవలం కాపు కులానికే ప్రతినిధా, కాదు అందరివాడా అన్నదానిపై స్పష్టత చూపెట్టాలి.

అటు చూస్తే, తెదేపా నాయకత్వ మార్పు జరుగుతున్న కీలకమయిన సంధి దశలో ఉంది. రాజకీయ నైపుణ్యం-తీవ్రత-ఎత్తుగడల్లో చాకచక్యం గురించి మాట్లాడితే జగన్ మిగతా ఇద్దరికంటే ఒక జనరేషన్ ముందున్నాడు. కానీ అతని ఆటలు ఎంతకాలం సాగుతాయో అన్నది భాజపా ఆంధ్రప్రదేశ్ స్ట్రాటజీపై ఆధారపడి ఉన్నది. తెదేపా-వైకాపాలు రెండూ బలంగా ఉన్నంత కాలం, భాజపాకి ఆంధ్రప్రదేశ్ రాజకీయాల్లో చోటు లేదు. కానీ కేసులు తిరగదోడి జగన్ ని జైలుకి పంపితే లాభపడేది తెదేపా-జనసేన లే కాని భాజపా కాదు. రజనీకాంత్ లాగ పవన్ కూడా చేజారిపోవడంతో ఆంధ్రప్రదేశ్ రాజకీయాల్లో భాజపా ప్రస్తుతం దిక్కు తోచని పరిస్థితుల్లో ఉందన్నది తేటతెల్లం!

BJP's Strategy for Andhra Pradesh

BJP understands that its usual methods of polarization would not work in Andhra Pradesh. AP does not have a sizeable Muslim population.

YSRCP's Christian favoritism provides BJP an opportunity to wiggle into the political space in AP. However, BJP does not want to share the benefits of polarization with TDP. By 2029, BJP aims to be the sole opposition against YSRCP. TDP's continued survival is at loggerheads with BJP's ambitions in AP.

TDP is at a critical stage of transition. Lokesh is waiting in the wings, trying to prove himself worthy. If he does not win the confidence of people, TDP will not survive the leadership transition. Also, a regional party weakens considerably if it is kept away from power for two consecutive terms. Therefore, for TDP, a loss in 2024 elections is a death knell. A loss in 2024 leaves TDP with an unproven leader at the helm, resources fast depleting and leaders deserting. Surviving until the next election would be a herculean task.

That is precisely when BJP will seek to strike! CBI and ED will get back into action. Jagan will be put behind the bars. In 2029, YSRCP will be facing severe anti-incumbency, with its leader jailed on corruption allegations. The other opposition party, TDP, would have been decimated by then. If Pavan Kalyan did not join BJP by then, BJP would have lost all interest in him. He and his Jana Sena too would have sunk into political oblivion by then.

Hindus in AP will be a heavily polarized lot by 2029. Several of their worship places would have come under attack. There will be a lot of outrage against increasing numbers of Christians and general Christian favoritism by the YSRCP government.

BJP will be waiting patiently until 2029 for this scenario to unfold. BJP wants TDP to be decimated by 2029. To facilitate that end, BJP will tolerate all excesses of Jagan and his party men against TDP leadership and supporters. It will be naïve of TDP to seek an alliance with BJP-Jana Sena in 2024. BJP wants a YSRCP win in 2024. BJP will work to replace the existing caste polarization in AP with religious polarization by 2029.

Yes, it is true that BJP threw the interests of AP under the bus by supporting Telangana formation and not granting Special Status. It is banking on the short-term memory of voters and is hoping that the betrayal will be forgotten.

Jagan is aware that his faith is his weakness. We have not seen him overtly flaunting his faith recently. He utilizes all chances to be seen participating in Hindu rituals. He is aware of the looming specter of BJP.

Reading Fiction

Finally finished watching The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings (LOTR) trilogies, yesterday. Enjoyed the Hobbit trilogy more though. Many of the movies are more than 3 hours long.

If mere watching the movies felt like such a huge task, I am not sure how one would feel about reading the books. With myriad characters, places, and species, it's a whole new world created by Tolkien. However, is there any meaning in spending so much time reading about that fictional new world?

Knowing all that trivia does not serve any utilitarian purpose. I would rather stick to watching movies. I would not even suggest the books to children. Not even to encourage their reading habit. They don't have to know all those unnecessary intricate details, just to improve their reading. They should rather spend that time knowing more about the real world. Kids would do well reading fictional works that mimic the real world more; and not dwell so much on books that talk about such non-existent stuff like magic rings, orcs, wizardry, elves, hobbits etc.

I believe this is true about any fictional world. Be it LOTR, Harry Potter, Narnia or any piece of fictional writing for that matter. If the world created by the author is so awesome, just spend enough time to know about the world and then stop. I was in the middle of the fifth book of Harry Potter when I stopped reading the series. I felt I knew enough about the world created by J.K. Rowling. There was no meaning in laboring more in that fictional world.

I would rather spend that time to better my lot in the real world. Or perhaps learn from the experiences of a great person by reading an autobiography. Or read any non-fiction work that tells you more about how the world works and what you should do to better your lot. Perhaps that is the reason men read non-fiction more and find fiction less and less attractive as they grow old.

People become more utilitarian as they grow old and shift towards things that help them operate better in the real world. The same reason why people shift their allegiance from Communism to Capitalism as they start participating in the economy and operate more and more in the real world. But that is a topic for another day!

My Beef with Modi

 I first heard about Modi in the aftermath of the 2002 Gujarat riots. I learned about how Vajpayee wanted to sack Modi as CM and how Advani came to his rescue. My political leanings were towards left back then. I was convinced that Modi was complicit. I absolutely hated Modi for that crime against humanity. I admired Chandrababu Naidu for showing some spine and withdrawing support to the NDA government. I resented BJP for a long while after that.

In the years following, Gujarat came to be recognized for its business friendliness. I remember one particular comment of Ratan Tata – “You are stupid If you are not in Gujarat.” Modi came to be recognized for being incorruptible, accessible, and business friendly. I watched the 2007 interview of Modi by Karan Thapar in which he forcefully tried to make Modi express regret over the Gujarat riots. Modi walked out respectfully instead. I remember him saying, “Hang me if you find me guilty.” Slowly, my attitude towards Modi started changing. Maybe he did not orchestrate the riots. I felt that Congress was going great lengths to hound Modi and Shah.

And then came the 2014 elections. I began to see more and more posts on Social media about Modi and his Gujarat Model of development. The images of Ahmedabad reminded one of Singapore. Modi’s campaign generated great hope amidst the policy paralysis of UPA II in the wake of 2G scam, other corruption allegations, and Anti-Corruption Movement. Modi’s Hindu pride and assertiveness felt like a breath of fresh air as opposed to the minority appeasing Congress government. Having seen enough world and having understood how the world works, my economic leanings too shifted towards the right of the spectrum by then.

I celebrated the 2014 victory of BJP in the 2014 General Elections. I was ecstatic. Modi’s “Minimum Government, Maximum Governance” slogan generated a lot of hope. Finally, there is some politician who understood that Government needs to be reduced. I believed economic reforms will pick up pace. Modi will pick up from where Vajpayee left off, I thought. Little did I realize that my hopes were soon going to crash in a heap.

The red flags started appearing soon after the government was formed. The first one occurred when Smriti Irani was given the HRD ministry in spite of lacking any credible educational qualifications. Madhu Kishwar, who supported Modi throughout the election campaign, openly questioned about it. HRD ministry deals with handling the aspirations of the youth who is the future of the country. Doesn’t it warrant education and experience? It would be a great opportunity to someone who is hungry about reforming India. How can it be callously handed over to a washed-out television actress who is only known for her gift of the gab? Was it Modi’s way of thanking Smriti Irani for standing firmly in support of him, after some early opposition? How can a Prime Minister mortgage the future of the country just to reward loyalty?

As months and years pass, it becomes clear that Ministers don’t get to run their ministries. Modi works 18 hours a day and runs the ministries with the help of babus. One upshot of this arrangement is there is no scope for ministers to indulge in corruption.

(To be Continued)