The
position of YSRCP and TDP vis-à-vis the Telangana issue is amusing.
No
one should have any doubts that YSRCP would be the biggest gainer in case
of separation. Their lack of strength in Telangana is common knowledge and the
recent Panchayat polls have only exposed this weakness. However, in the Seemandhra region, they have only
TDP to contend with. Because without a charismatic leader at the state level, the
Congress has already been decimated. Do not let the Panchayat poll results fool
you. Though Congress-backed candidates
won the biggest number of Panchayats, it is mainly because Congress is the
ruling party.
With
its weakest region taken out, YSRCP has a great chance to form government in a
separate Seemandhra state. Even if they
did not gain power this time, they will be the biggest opposition party with a
formidable presence in the Assembly.
With a good number of MP seats, they will have a huge bargaining power
with the next government at the centre.
Getting Jagan out would be child’s play!
TDP,
on the other hand, might be the biggest loser if the state is separated. At the grassroots level, it is the TDP that
is the strongest party in AP. NTR gave a
political platform to energetic youth of the 1980s. Now, most of them are in their 50s and early
60s, powerful socially and financially.
While in power, Chandrababu Naidu had carefully cultivated the
grassroots leaders with contracts and other benefits. As a party that ruled for the majority of the
last 30 years, TDP is strong throughout the length and breadth of AP. Naturally, TDP would not want to alienate
people of either region. Or rather TDP would try to remain strong in all the
regions and consolidate further.
It
is a pity that until a few weeks ago, the TDP cadres believed that they were coasting
towards a comfortable win in the 2014 elections. They were expecting to cross the magic number
comfortably in the Assembly elections.
At the centre, they believed they will win a handsome number of
parliament seats - enough to become a kingmaker in a third front government. Their hopes were rooted in very sound logic.
Without a strong state-level leader, the Congress was going to be a non-entity
in the next elections. Though Kiran
Kumar Reddy proved to be an efficient and clean CM, he never had enough power
to take tough decisions and prove himself.
Jagan’s long incarceration was weakening YSRCP as it was fast losing the
momentum it gained after the by-elections that saw them win 15 of 18 Assembly
seats at stake. TDP was riding high on
the back of Chandrababu’s Vastunna
Meekosam Padayatra. But alas! With
the advantage and arrogance of being the ruling party, the Congress turned the
tables with its decision on Telangana.
Now
that push came to shove, to remain politically relevant in Telangana, TDP has
no other option but to say yes to separation.
After dousing the fire in Telangana, TDP can always mollify coastal
Andhra with ease. After all, it is their
own backyard. What matters now is living
another day in Telangana. However, TDP
has T Congress and TRS to contend with in Telangana. A merger will surely turn
the revitalized Congress into a juggernaut that will mow down everything on its
way in 2014. TDP can only wait another
five years and hope for a strong anti-incumbency factor in the next
elections. However, BJP may gain
presence in Telangana because of the Modi factor and communal tensions that
arise because of an increased minority percentage population. If the TRS did not merge in Congress, TDP
will have the Congress, TRS, and the BJP to contend with in the new Telangana
state. TDP is most likely to lose
relevance in Telangana in a few years of a separate state formation.
In
the backdrop of a strong reaction and continued agitations in Seemandhra after
the announcement of a Separate state by the Congress, the actions and reactions
of both YSRCP and TDP are worth watching.
YSRCP reluctantly argues about the need for consensus, taking people of
both sides into confidence, and solving the contentious issues. TDP, on the other hand, reacts cautiously.
YSRCP
knows that its best interests lie in a separate Seemandhra state. However, by talking about the interests of
the Seemandhra people, it is trying to ride the high tide of Seemandhra
sentiments. While secretly wishing for a
separate Seemandhra state, YSRCP hopes to hijack the public support that is on
offer for whichever party/organization that fights for the cause of a united
AP.
TDP
hopes to ride the wave in Seemandhra too, but while also making sure that it
lives to fight another day in Telangana.
For political parties of AP, suddenly, the united Andhra dilemma
replaces the Telangana dilemma.
Due
to the reluctant reaction of YSRCP and cautious non-action of TDP, it is not
surprising that the Samaikyandhra agitations in Seemandhra do not have any
party at the helm, and are largely unorganized. Not surprisingly, the party
that supports the united state cause in Seemandhra most vocally is the
Seemandhra Congress which stares at a wipe out in the coming elections.
