The Dilemma on United Andhra

The position of YSRCP and TDP vis-à-vis the Telangana issue is amusing.

No one should have any doubts that YSRCP would be the biggest gainer in case of separation. Their lack of strength in Telangana is common knowledge and the recent Panchayat polls have only exposed this weakness.  However, in the Seemandhra region, they have only TDP to contend with. Because without a charismatic leader at the state level, the Congress has already been decimated. Do not let the Panchayat poll results fool you.  Though Congress-backed candidates won the biggest number of Panchayats, it is mainly because Congress is the ruling party.

With its weakest region taken out, YSRCP has a great chance to form government in a separate Seemandhra state.  Even if they did not gain power this time, they will be the biggest opposition party with a formidable presence in the Assembly.  With a good number of MP seats, they will have a huge bargaining power with the next government at the centre.  Getting Jagan out would be child’s play!

TDP, on the other hand, might be the biggest loser if the state is separated.  At the grassroots level, it is the TDP that is the strongest party in AP.  NTR gave a political platform to energetic youth of the 1980s.  Now, most of them are in their 50s and early 60s, powerful socially and financially.  While in power, Chandrababu Naidu had carefully cultivated the grassroots leaders with contracts and other benefits.  As a party that ruled for the majority of the last 30 years, TDP is strong throughout the length and breadth of AP.  Naturally, TDP would not want to alienate people of either region. Or rather TDP would try to remain strong in all the regions and consolidate further.

It is a pity that until a few weeks ago, the TDP cadres believed that they were coasting towards a comfortable win in the 2014 elections.  They were expecting to cross the magic number comfortably in the Assembly elections.  At the centre, they believed they will win a handsome number of parliament seats - enough to become a kingmaker in a third front government.  Their hopes were rooted in very sound logic. Without a strong state-level leader, the Congress was going to be a non-entity in the next elections.  Though Kiran Kumar Reddy proved to be an efficient and clean CM, he never had enough power to take tough decisions and prove himself.  Jagan’s long incarceration was weakening YSRCP as it was fast losing the momentum it gained after the by-elections that saw them win 15 of 18 Assembly seats at stake.  TDP was riding high on the back of Chandrababu’s Vastunna Meekosam Padayatra.  But alas! With the advantage and arrogance of being the ruling party, the Congress turned the tables with its decision on Telangana.

Now that push came to shove, to remain politically relevant in Telangana, TDP has no other option but to say yes to separation.  After dousing the fire in Telangana, TDP can always mollify coastal Andhra with ease.  After all, it is their own backyard.  What matters now is living another day in Telangana.  However, TDP has T Congress and TRS to contend with in Telangana. A merger will surely turn the revitalized Congress into a juggernaut that will mow down everything on its way in 2014.  TDP can only wait another five years and hope for a strong anti-incumbency factor in the next elections.  However, BJP may gain presence in Telangana because of the Modi factor and communal tensions that arise because of an increased minority percentage population.  If the TRS did not merge in Congress, TDP will have the Congress, TRS, and the BJP to contend with in the new Telangana state.  TDP is most likely to lose relevance in Telangana in a few years of a separate state formation.

In the backdrop of a strong reaction and continued agitations in Seemandhra after the announcement of a Separate state by the Congress, the actions and reactions of both YSRCP and TDP are worth watching.  YSRCP reluctantly argues about the need for consensus, taking people of both sides into confidence, and solving the contentious issues.  TDP, on the other hand, reacts cautiously.

YSRCP knows that its best interests lie in a separate Seemandhra state.  However, by talking about the interests of the Seemandhra people, it is trying to ride the high tide of Seemandhra sentiments.  While secretly wishing for a separate Seemandhra state, YSRCP hopes to hijack the public support that is on offer for whichever party/organization that fights for the cause of a united AP.

TDP hopes to ride the wave in Seemandhra too, but while also making sure that it lives to fight another day in Telangana.  For political parties of AP, suddenly, the united Andhra dilemma replaces the Telangana dilemma.

Due to the reluctant reaction of YSRCP and cautious non-action of TDP, it is not surprising that the Samaikyandhra agitations in Seemandhra do not have any party at the helm, and are largely unorganized. Not surprisingly, the party that supports the united state cause in Seemandhra most vocally is the Seemandhra Congress which stares at a wipe out in the coming elections.

BJP's Interests in a Separate Telangana

Why the Congress would not let a separate Telangana State materialize? And why would BJP strive to make a separate State a reality?

In a separate Telangana state or even in the hypothetical Rayala Telangana, polarization of people among religious lines is easy. That is the reason BJP wants a separate State. BJP and MIM can easily gain ground in these regions by whipping up passions.

There is never any problem when a minority is insignificant. The numerical majority never feels threatened. That is how people of different religions live together peacefully in villages of AP. Members of the majority religion even celebrate, support, and fecilitate festivals of minorities. But when the minority has a certain critical mass, a conflict of interests ensues. The conflict could be both economic and social.

That is why Hyderabad or parts of Nizamabad and Adilabad do not have the same tolerance levels as villages of coastal Andhra. Demagogues can easily whip up passions against the other community. Each community views the other as a threat. They become polarized on religious lines as a result. They start voting en-bloc to political parties that offer them safety and support. This is what is happening in the Old City area of Hyderabad. Both the BJP and MIM are strong there. In a separate state, both can gain in certain pockets. BJP now has only a sporadic presence in Andhra Pradesh. In a separate state, BJP sees a great opportunity to increase their presence and numbers.

BJP could gain enough strength to form a government in Karnataka for the same reason. The presence and numbers of the minority is more significant in Karnataka compared to the other Southern states. Many regions of the state has a history of Muslim rule.

Parts of Kerala around the Malabar region have a significant minority. The area is the only stronghold of the Muslim League. However, it is not possible for the BJP to gain ground as easily in Kerala. The average Keralaite is more educated than the average Indian and leans towards the Left. The Left parties consider religion as opium of the masses and strongly disapprove of the concept of religion. As a result, the Keralaite does not have a strong religious identity. It is difficult for the BJP to polarize the majority community on religious lines.

The Congress would not give in to the demands of a separate Telangana for the same reason that BJP would!

Who is the UPA Prime Ministerial Candidate for the 2014 General Elections?

Why is there so much debate on who would be the Prime Ministerial candidate of UPA for the 2014 General Elections? I guess among the top echelons of the Congress, the decision has already been taken. It is very much written on the wall. The media has been rather slow.

The choice of Manmohan as PM in 2004 was a mind-blowing coup of sorts. Not many people anticipated it, barring very intelligent newspapers like Eenadu. In one stroke, the Congress almost made up for the whole Operation Blue Star fiasco. The congress never overtly expressed it, but it is a huge move to gain back the confidence and faith of the Sikh community towards not only the Congress, but also the Indian Republic.

Through history, the allegiance of the Sikh community has been rather wavering. One of the major causes for the failure of the 1857 revolt was the strong support to the British from Punjab. The community realized this and wanted to make up for it. The need to make amends to the historical mistake was stressed by the community leaders while drumming up support for the Indian National Movement.

The community realized the mistake and made amends and how? The majority of Indians imprisoned by the British and sent to gallows were from Punjab. Punjab suffered like no other region in India, during the Independence Struggle, as well as the aftermath, during the partition. Sikhs are known for their bravery and are an important element in Indian military. It is very easy to stoke emotions with such history and geography.

The strong arm tactics of PV Narasimha Rao successfully decimated the Punjab separatist movement. However, in the backdrop of Operation Blue Star and the riots of 1984, there was a need to make the community feel integrated and their confidence in India regained. And that is the reason the choice of Manmohan Singh was such a coup.

He was the perfect choice. In the eyes of the media and people, he was the architect of economic reforms and liberalization. He is clean. He is loyal and humble. He does not talk much, not assertive, does not hanker for any benefits, political, financial, or any other.

Now again, there is another region in India where it is not difficult to raise the banner of separatism.  The region is in great contrast to Punjab and much of the rest of India - Tamilnadu, the land of the Dravidians. There is more difference between Delhi and Chennai than between London and Istanbul. The language is similar to none of the Indian languages. Tamil did not originate from Sanskrit. Culturally, the Tamilian is very different from any state North of the Vindhyas. Ethnically, they are almost a different race from the North Indian population. Sanskritisation during the middle ages, integration of their Gods into Hinduism, and a shared history of British rule are the only threads that bind them to the rest of India.

Similar to Punjab and the North-Eastern states, Tamilnadu has been witness to demands of separatism. The 1970's was a period of tumult that saw the Dravidians assert their cultural identity. Though the confrontation never degenerated into an armed uprising, their unique cultural identity is a key political scoring point and an easy instrument to whip up passions and frenzy, even today.

In this backdrop, the neighboring Tamilian issue in Sri Lanka adds fuel to the dormant fire. A prime minister of India was killed in the Tamil heartland in India by a separatist organization in Sri Lanka (read LTTE) as he gave military support to Sri Lankan army. Over the first term (2004-2009), the congress government witnessed the terrorist group erased in Sri Lanka. Nobody knows to what extent Indian involvement or support had been. The handling of this issue by itself was a great victory for the Congress. There was never much hue and cry over the issue except until recently.  With the LTTE wiped out and the goal accomplished, the congress government does not want to ruffle the feathers of the Tamilians any further. Soon after the LTTE was wiped out, India began distancing itself from Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka started feeling alianated from India and began moving closer to China.

In such context, there is again a pressing need for the Indian government to make a vastly different group of people and piece of geography assimilated and integrated. And how about a Tamilian prime minister to address that concern? A dhoti-clad Tamilian who is Harvard educated and supports further economic liberalization. A towering intellectual (some say an intellectual snob) who is known for his honesty and clean image. Yes, the current union finance minister, P. Chidambaram.

There is every reason to applaud such a move. Such measures only address the need for reconciliation and sense of integration in this culturally and geographically diverse nation. Not only the two Indian states mentioned above, but more so the North-Eastern states need more conspicuous representation among the top echelons of the Indian government and media, and public life in general. That is the reason not electing PA Sangma for President was such a lost opportunity!