The Dilemma on United Andhra

The position of YSRCP and TDP vis-à-vis the Telangana issue is amusing.

No one should have any doubts that YSRCP would be the biggest gainer in case of separation. Their lack of strength in Telangana is common knowledge and the recent Panchayat polls have only exposed this weakness.  However, in the Seemandhra region, they have only TDP to contend with. Because without a charismatic leader at the state level, the Congress has already been decimated. Do not let the Panchayat poll results fool you.  Though Congress-backed candidates won the biggest number of Panchayats, it is mainly because Congress is the ruling party.

With its weakest region taken out, YSRCP has a great chance to form government in a separate Seemandhra state.  Even if they did not gain power this time, they will be the biggest opposition party with a formidable presence in the Assembly.  With a good number of MP seats, they will have a huge bargaining power with the next government at the centre.  Getting Jagan out would be child’s play!

TDP, on the other hand, might be the biggest loser if the state is separated.  At the grassroots level, it is the TDP that is the strongest party in AP.  NTR gave a political platform to energetic youth of the 1980s.  Now, most of them are in their 50s and early 60s, powerful socially and financially.  While in power, Chandrababu Naidu had carefully cultivated the grassroots leaders with contracts and other benefits.  As a party that ruled for the majority of the last 30 years, TDP is strong throughout the length and breadth of AP.  Naturally, TDP would not want to alienate people of either region. Or rather TDP would try to remain strong in all the regions and consolidate further.

It is a pity that until a few weeks ago, the TDP cadres believed that they were coasting towards a comfortable win in the 2014 elections.  They were expecting to cross the magic number comfortably in the Assembly elections.  At the centre, they believed they will win a handsome number of parliament seats - enough to become a kingmaker in a third front government.  Their hopes were rooted in very sound logic. Without a strong state-level leader, the Congress was going to be a non-entity in the next elections.  Though Kiran Kumar Reddy proved to be an efficient and clean CM, he never had enough power to take tough decisions and prove himself.  Jagan’s long incarceration was weakening YSRCP as it was fast losing the momentum it gained after the by-elections that saw them win 15 of 18 Assembly seats at stake.  TDP was riding high on the back of Chandrababu’s Vastunna Meekosam Padayatra.  But alas! With the advantage and arrogance of being the ruling party, the Congress turned the tables with its decision on Telangana.

Now that push came to shove, to remain politically relevant in Telangana, TDP has no other option but to say yes to separation.  After dousing the fire in Telangana, TDP can always mollify coastal Andhra with ease.  After all, it is their own backyard.  What matters now is living another day in Telangana.  However, TDP has T Congress and TRS to contend with in Telangana. A merger will surely turn the revitalized Congress into a juggernaut that will mow down everything on its way in 2014.  TDP can only wait another five years and hope for a strong anti-incumbency factor in the next elections.  However, BJP may gain presence in Telangana because of the Modi factor and communal tensions that arise because of an increased minority percentage population.  If the TRS did not merge in Congress, TDP will have the Congress, TRS, and the BJP to contend with in the new Telangana state.  TDP is most likely to lose relevance in Telangana in a few years of a separate state formation.

In the backdrop of a strong reaction and continued agitations in Seemandhra after the announcement of a Separate state by the Congress, the actions and reactions of both YSRCP and TDP are worth watching.  YSRCP reluctantly argues about the need for consensus, taking people of both sides into confidence, and solving the contentious issues.  TDP, on the other hand, reacts cautiously.

YSRCP knows that its best interests lie in a separate Seemandhra state.  However, by talking about the interests of the Seemandhra people, it is trying to ride the high tide of Seemandhra sentiments.  While secretly wishing for a separate Seemandhra state, YSRCP hopes to hijack the public support that is on offer for whichever party/organization that fights for the cause of a united AP.

TDP hopes to ride the wave in Seemandhra too, but while also making sure that it lives to fight another day in Telangana.  For political parties of AP, suddenly, the united Andhra dilemma replaces the Telangana dilemma.

Due to the reluctant reaction of YSRCP and cautious non-action of TDP, it is not surprising that the Samaikyandhra agitations in Seemandhra do not have any party at the helm, and are largely unorganized. Not surprisingly, the party that supports the united state cause in Seemandhra most vocally is the Seemandhra Congress which stares at a wipe out in the coming elections.